If there is anything I hate about living where we do, it is the difficulty the weather forecasters have at giving an accurate forecast. It’s not just one forecaster – this has been a problem in this area as long as I’ve known this area exists. For example – early this evening I started feeling the familiar neck/back pain that indicates bad weather is coming, so I checked the forecast. It said we had a 40% chance of showers “late in the evening” – on the hourly breakdown it scheduled the showers to start around midnight. Tomorrow was supposed to be 20%, with 100% tomorrow evening. It is now just after midnight, so I checked the forecast for an update.
They have decreased the immediate chance to 20%, and pushed the entire main event back to tomorrow evening. In the between time, it is a near certainty that my back/neck will continue to tell me bad weather is coming, and as the time gets closer, my hip will get in on the act as well.
I can’t prove it, but I think the problem is a combination of factors. One thing is that most of the storms we get here form over the Rocky Mountains, and head east from there, traveling with the help of the Jet Stream. The other is some quirk of geography that causes the storms to stall just west of where we live, or sometimes to split and go around us while missing us. It doesn’t help me a bit, but that is the best explanation I can come up with so far.